Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria
An Analysis of Four Sectors
Project involved an AGDF partner
Part 1, Agriculture and Land Use Sector - Francis Bisong (Consultant)
In Vision 20: 2020 the Federal Government of Nigeria laid out ambitious targets for increasing the domestic agricultural production sixfold by 2020. Output growth would be achieved through reduction in postharvest losses, increased yields, and expansion of cropland. The present study analyzes the climate change mitigation potential of the agricultural sector within the constraint of meeting these growth targets. The EX Ante Appraisal Carbon-balance Tool (EX-ACT), developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), was used for the analysis. The tool enables comparison of emissions between scenarios involving different land use and management choices. The analysis was conducted for a 25-year period, 2010–35, with a 15-year implemen- tation period for land management changes and a 10-year capitalization period during which no further land management changes are considered but emissions effects deriving from the earlier changes are assessed.
The team constructed a reference scenario to provide a plausible pathway for achieving the Vision 20: 2020 growth targets in 2025, based on government poli- cies and expert opinion. First, a growth model was established to estimate expected contributions of cropland expansion and yield increases to meet the overall sector output growth targets. Then more detailed land use and technology change projections were developed in line with the broad parameters set by the growth model. Net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were calculated from the detailed land use and technology models, which also incorporated a spatial analysis of land suitability and specific government policies (for example, on afforestation, expansion of irrigation and rural roads, and other land use changes).
View report