For Nigeria’s Transition to Green Economy: Linking Circular Economy and Natural Capital for Public Private Partnership (PPP) Investments

Nigerian Circular Economy Program (NCEP)

Date: 2024

Client: African Development Bank (AfDB) and Government of the Netherlands

Nigeria stands at a pivotal moment in redefining its development model through the Nigerian Circular Economy Program (NCEP)—a national initiative designed to shift from a traditional linear economy to a sustainable, circular one by 2050. At the core of this effort is the Nigeria Circular Economy Roadmap (NCERM), a comprehensive strategy that outlines key actions, timelines, and policy instruments to guide the transition. The NCERM will serve as a strategic tool for implementation and monitoring, supported by critical components such as the National Policy on Circular Economy (NPCE), the National Circular Economy Investment Plan (NCEIP), the Circular Economy Legislative Plan (CELP), and the National Natural Capital Strategy (NNCS).

Together, these frameworks aim to mobilize investment, promote innovation, and institutionalize circular economy principles. Informed by a detailed Scoping Report, the program targets high-impact sectors including Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), Energy, Services, and Industrial Processes.

It identifies both challenges and opportunities—particularly within informal systems—that can serve as foundations for circular growth. A Theory of Change (ToC) has been developed to articulate the rationale and pathway for this transition, highlighting interdependencies, sectoral strategies, and expected outcomes.

The ToC aims to enhance natural capital, reduce environmental pressure, and stimulate green economic opportunities. Despite challenges such as policy gaps, limited resources, and rapid urbanization, Nigeria’s strong human capital, dynamic private sector, and growing climate commitments provide a solid foundation for success.

Through inclusive partnerships, targeted investments, and capacity building, the NCEP envisions a future where economic resilience and environmental sustainability are fully aligned.

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